The Labour Party's leadership race is heating up, with several contenders vying to replace the current leader, Keir Starmer. While Starmer insists there is no vacancy and seeks a second five-year term, the various contenders have been organizing and making their moves. Here's a breakdown of the main threats to Starmer's leadership, each with their own unique strengths and challenges.
Wes Streeting: The Rising Star
The health secretary, Wes Streeting, is widely considered the most ready for a leadership contest. He stands to gain from a competition, especially with Andy Burnham's exclusion from Parliament and Angela Rayner's unresolved tax issues. Streeting, a former close ally of Peter Mandelson and a leading figure in the Blairite Progress wing, has been veering to the left on issues like Gaza and welfare, likely to appeal to the Labour membership. Briefings from his supporters suggest he has 200 MPs lined up, but opponents dismiss this as nonsense. Streeting's text messages, including one where he feared being "toast" at the next election, and his criticism of the government's lack of a growth strategy, have raised eyebrows. His drift away from Starmer and No 10 last autumn further fuels speculation about his leadership ambitions. However, Streeting faces substantial hurdles, with a soft-left candidate potentially more favored by the membership and determined opposition from "Stop Wes" MPs.
Angela Rayner: The Soft Left Contender
Angela Rayner, the former deputy leader, has not confirmed her candidacy but is preparing, according to her allies. Her soft left stance, a middle ground between the party's right and harder left, could appeal to Labour members. Rayner's tax affair with an HMRC inquiry has not been resolved, making her candidacy uncertain. She has sent out a statement outlining her vision for the party, urging a return to governing for the working class and criticizing Starmer's decision to block Burnham's return to Parliament. Her chances are boosted by Burnham's exclusion, but a quick contest could benefit her if she offers to allow him a top job. Rayner's record in government, including the employment rights bill and housebuilding push, is impressive and could sway Labour members.
Andy Burnham: The Popular Choice
Andy Burnham, the Mayor of Greater Manchester, was jostling for the leadership as early as autumn. He has built substantial support on the soft left and among centrists. Burnham's backers have been calling for Starmer's resignation, but this tactic backfired, creating momentum for a quicker contest that excludes him. As a former health secretary, Burnham advocates for Manchesterism and proportional representation. His popularity with party members and the country at large, coupled with his working-class image and authenticity, makes him a strong contender. However, his exclusion from Parliament by Labour's national executive, loyal to Starmer, has been a setback.
Ed Miliband: The Long-Game Player
Ed Miliband, the secretary of state for energy security and net zero, has been playing the long game. He has avoided scandals and was seen as content to pitch himself as a future chancellor or kingmaker of the soft left. However, if a contest takes place before Burnham's return, Miliband could be a strong alternative to Rayner. His weakness lies in his previous electoral defeat to David Cameron in 2015, which has raised nervousness among MPs about his chances against Nigel Farage. Miliband's supporters have been urging Starmer to set a timetable for his exit, but the prime minister has firmly rejected this plan.
Catherine West: The Unlikely Contender
Catherine West, a former parliamentary under-secretary at the Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office, emerged as a surprise leadership contender over the weekend. Her decision to challenge Starmer came out of the blue, and while she is unlikely to win, her statement suggests she could become a stalking horse. West's lack of recognition outside Westminster adds to the intrigue surrounding her potential candidacy.
